MLB prop picks: 3 best bets for Friday (June 21) (2024)

We've got a full MLB betting slate on tap for today, Friday, June 21, with every MLB team on the card. After getting two home run predictions correct yesterday, it's only right to back to home runs, so please check out our three favorite home run predictions for today!

Play 1: Royce Lewis to Hit a Home Run (+300) FanDuel

Minnesota Twins vs. Oakland Athletics, 9:40PM ET

We went with Royce Lewis yesterday and he came through for us, but he's been absolutely on fire recently so let's go right back to him. He has now played 15 games this year due to an injury suffered at the beginning of the season, but in those 15 games he has an astonishing nine home runs, giving him an ISO rate of .547. For context, of all qualified batters this season, Aaron Judge leads the MLB with an ISO rate of .392. To even further put this into perspective, the best ISO rate in MLB history was Barry Bonds in 2001 with an ISO rate of .536 when he hit 73 home runs.

It's not only ISO rate either; all of his advanced metrics look phenomenal. His barrel rate is 22.2% (anything above 15% is considered "excellent" by FanGraphs), which would be the second-highest barrel rate in MLB if he had enough at-bats to qualify, only behind Aaron Judge. His fly-ball rate of 51.1% would be the seventh-highest in the MLB, his pull-rate of 51.1% would also put him at seventh-highest in the MLB, and his hard hit rate of batted balls of 42.2% would be the tenth-highest in baseball.

This is also a batter/pitcher matchup that should heavily favor Royce Lewis. He is going up against Joey Estes of the Athletics, and Estes throws a 4-seam fastball 54% of the time, which is the type of pitch that Lewis hits for the most power, and a slider 29% of the time, which is the type of pitch that Lewis his for the second-most power. Lewis also just went up against Estes last week and took him yard, so I wouldn't be surprised if the same thing happened today.

Play 2: Christian Walker to Hit a Home Run (+330) BetRivers

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies, 6:40PM ET

Christian Walker has been raking recently and now has a very juicy matchup against Phillies RHP Taijuan Walker, who has been horrible this year. Taijuan Walker missed the first month of the year due to an injury, but has now made nine starts and has been awful in those nine starts.

He is allowing a barrel rate of 13.8% and a hard hit rate of 51.3%, both of which would be the highest in the majors if he had pitched enough innings to qualify, and to further prove how frequently he is allowing the other team to crush the ball, his average exit velocity allowed is 92.3, which is once again the highest in the MLB. From there, his launch angle allowed is 16.9 degrees, which would rank 18th in the MLB. So, not only is he allowing hard contact at the worst rate in the MLB, but he is also allowing the batter to drive the ball in the air, which is a great recipe home runs.

While these two have not faced each other in the past three years, this should be a major advantage for the Walker (the batter), who, as previously mentioned, has been on fire recently. He's hit five home runs over the last two weeks, and all five of them have been against right-handed pitching, which is the arm Walker (the pitcher) throws with. His ISO rate in this span against RHP is .378, which would just put him below Aaron Judge with the second-best ISO rate in the MLB if you extrapolated that out to the entire season. Looking at the season as a whole, Walker has a barrel rate of 17.2% (seventh-best in the majors), and has been much better against righties on the season as well. His ISO rate against righties on the year is .254 (in the "excellent" category according to FanGraphs) and up from .154 against lefties.

Play 3: Will Smith to Hit a Home Run (+490) Caesars

Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers, 10:10PM ET

Will Smith is another player that we went with yesterday, and he came through for us just like Royce Lewis did, so let's go right back to him in another game in which he has a good matchup. The logic for backing Will Smith is pretty similar to yesterday in that you only want to target Smith when he goes up against a left-handed pitcher, which is what he is facing tonight in Patrick Sandoval for the Angels.

Sandoval has given up eight home runs on the year, seven of which have come against righties. Admittedly Sandoval does not have horrible home run numbers, but this is still a matchup that should heavily favor Will Smith. As mentioned, Smith is much better against lefty pitchers in general. His ISO rate against LHP is .333, which would be the second-best in the MLB if you extrapolated that out to all qualified batters, only behind Aaron Judge, and his slugging of .696 is the same thing -- second only to Judge. His fly-ball rate, pull-rate and hard hit rate are all higher against LHP as well, with a hard hit rate of 45% against LHP, which would once again be second in the MLB to -- you guessed it- Aaron Judge.

Another angle to like about Smith is that he generally tries to put the ball in the air, as evidenced by his 14th-highest launch angle and his 13th-highest fly-ball rate, which always helps with home runs. Smith had two hard hits, one barrel and one home run yesterday, so let's hope he stays hot today.

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